ECONOMIC UPDATE – JUNE 30, 2023
1. INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK Despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates constant at their June meeting, current market forecasts project an 81.8% chance that the FOMC will move forward with a 25-basis point hike in July, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fed Watch Tool. In June, officials placed their year-plus hiking cycle on […]
ECONOMIC UPDATE – JUNE 16, 2023
1. FED MEETING MINUTES Minutes from the FOMC’s May 2-3 policy meeting showed that central bank policymakers were split on the decision to continue raising interest rates or pause increases during its most recent vote. Ultimately, the decision to raise rates by 25 basis points in May was unanimous. However, the minutes signal that officials […]
MAY 26, 2023
1. FED MEETING MINUTES Minutes from the FOMC’s May 2-3 policy meeting showed that central bank policymakers were split on the decision to continue raising interest rates or pause increases during its most recent vote. Ultimately, the decision to raise rates by 25 basis points in May was unanimous. However, the minutes signal that officials […]
MAY 12, 2023
1. CPI INFLATION RATE US annual inflation continues to decelerate through April. As reported by the BLS, the Consumer Price Index grew 4.9% year-over-year as of the most recent reading. The current pace of growth indicates a slowdown compared to the 5% year-over-year growth witnessed in March, signaling a gradual easing of inflationary pressures. Despite […]
APRIL 28, 2023
1. Q1 2023 DGP The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.1% during the first quarter of this year, slowing significantly from the Q4 2022 annualized rate of 2.6% and registering well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 2.0%. Growth in Q1 primarily reflected an increase in consumer spending partially offset by […]
APRIL 14, 2023
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-over-month and 5.0% year-over-year through March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest release. It was the slowest monthly climb for prices since December. Energy prices are down 6.4% year-over-year, with declines accelerating in March, falling 3.5% in March compared to a more tepid […]
MARCH 31, 2023
1. INTEREST RATE IMPACT ON BANK SECURITIES AND CAPITAL After recent distress in the banking sector, there is a risk that many of the small and mid-sized banks that hold the bulk of US commercial real estate loans may see a credit crunch, dampening liquidity in the sector. According to Goldman Sachs, roughly 80% of […]
JANUARY 13, 2023
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.5% year-over-year and just 0.1% month-over-month, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — relatively in line with most industry estimates. The annual inflation rate has now fallen for six consecutive months. Core CPI, which removes food and energy prices from the […]
JANUARY 27, 2023
1. GDP Real GDP increased at a 2.9% annual rate in Q4 2022, according to the advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economic output has slowed from Q3 2022, when real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate. While recession fears have amplified heading into 2023, economic output has remained robust from a […]
FEBRUARY 10, 2023
1. JANUARY JOBS REPORT According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 517,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.4%. The number of unemployed persons was also little changed at 5.7 million. On the surface, the January report registered way above most industry expectations, with some observers […]
