APRIL 28, 2023
1. Q1 2023 DGP The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.1% during the first quarter of this year, slowing significantly from the Q4 2022 annualized rate of 2.6% and registering well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 2.0%. Growth in Q1 primarily reflected an increase in consumer spending partially offset by […]
APRIL 14, 2023
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-over-month and 5.0% year-over-year through March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest release. It was the slowest monthly climb for prices since December. Energy prices are down 6.4% year-over-year, with declines accelerating in March, falling 3.5% in March compared to a more tepid […]
MARCH 31, 2023
1. INTEREST RATE IMPACT ON BANK SECURITIES AND CAPITAL After recent distress in the banking sector, there is a risk that many of the small and mid-sized banks that hold the bulk of US commercial real estate loans may see a credit crunch, dampening liquidity in the sector. According to Goldman Sachs, roughly 80% of […]
JANUARY 13, 2023
1. CPI INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.5% year-over-year and just 0.1% month-over-month, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — relatively in line with most industry estimates. The annual inflation rate has now fallen for six consecutive months. Core CPI, which removes food and energy prices from the […]
JANUARY 27, 2023
1. GDP Real GDP increased at a 2.9% annual rate in Q4 2022, according to the advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economic output has slowed from Q3 2022, when real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate. While recession fears have amplified heading into 2023, economic output has remained robust from a […]
FEBRUARY 10, 2023
1. JANUARY JOBS REPORT According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 517,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.4%. The number of unemployed persons was also little changed at 5.7 million. On the surface, the January report registered way above most industry expectations, with some observers […]
FEBRUARY 24, 2023
1. HOMEBUILDING SENTIMENT RISES According to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), homebuilding confidence is on the rise. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose seven index points to a level of 42, its highest reading since September and the most significant monthly increase in the index since June […]
MARCH 17, 2023
1. INFLATION The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year on a seasonally adjusted basis through February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March 14th release. Both the monthly and annual measures decelerated from January. Last month’s annual inflation rate was the lowest since September 2021, while the previous two months […]
